5 days and counting........

Here's something I wrote for my homeschool newsletter. *sniff* SO PROUD!!

The Academy Awards are just a few days away. Are Reese Witherspoon and Philip Seymour Hoffman really shoo-ins? Will Crash steal the Oscar from Brokeback Mountain? Will George Clooney walk home with anything other then the complementary nominee sweat shirt? The answers, (in my opinion) are yes, no, and yes. Although Felicity Huffman and Heath Ledger offer some fierce competition, as Time magazine put it, the only thing that would stop Hoffman from winning is "an asteroid hitting planet earth." And of Witherspoon, "it's hard to think of a more winning or comfortably graceful performance." Other nominees are Joaquin Pheonix, David Strathairn, and Terrance Howard for Best Actor, and Judi Dench, Keira Knightley, and Charlize Theron for Best Actress.

As far as the much-heated Crash VS. Brokeback Mountain debate, I think Brokeback Mountain will win, even with Crash's enthusiastic fan base. Brokeback Mountain has all the ingredients for an Oscar win. It's the classic hollywood love story, comparable with Wuthering Heights or Titanic. What could hurt its chances are the academy members not being comfortable with the gay subject matter, or they could simply be tired of hearing gay cowboy jokes for two months straight. Oscar bloggers have been chattering about how close the Best Picture race is, saying that Crash has gained a lot of support by sending DVDs to all the members of the academy, making it the "last movie seen", therefore keeping it fresh in everybody's minds. Other nominees are Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck, and Munich.

The supporting acting categories this year are a little harder to call. George Clooney and Rachel Wiesz, with their Golden Globes (and Wiesz's SAG) in tow are the front runners, but an upset is possible from Paul Giamatti or Amy Adams. William Hurt has been around too long, and had too little screen time. Jake Gyllenhaal hasn't been around long enough, and had too much screen time. (It really wasn't a supporting role.) Matt Dillon could pull a surprise win, and the academy is itching to give Giamatti something this year, since they left him out in the cold last year for Sideways. But you've got to love a guy who puts on 35 pounds, grows a beard, breaks his back, and openly complains "This is early, I haven't had a drink yet" while accepting his Golden Globe.

One would think, that with a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and a BAFTA nomination Wiesz would be considered a lock, but critics keep shouting that the Best Supporting Actress race is wide open. A case could be made for any of the other nominees. Best Picture usually takes an acting award, so if Brokeback Mountain wins Michelle Williams could take home an Oscar. Premiere Magazine said Catherine Keener "is due for a long-term career prize", and Junebug's extremely enthusiastic fan Roger Ebert says "[Adams] work in Junebug is the most effective and in some ways most difficult performance in any category this year." The only nominee nobody's talking about is Frances McDormand who is nominated for North Country. Wiesz will probably win, as votes will be split among the other nominees.